Is it Possible to Quantify Luck vs Skill?

Most of life is a mix of luck and skill. But can you quantify the percentage of luck and percentage of skill? You can!

Let’s say your playing a game with a friend. Over a bazillions matches, you win 80% of the time.

For that game, what percentage is luck vs skill?

Let’s think it through:

• If the game was 100% luck and 0% skill, you would expect to win 50% of matches.
• If the game was 0% luck and 100% skill, you would expect to win all 100% of matches.
• If the game was 50% luck and 50% skill, you would expect the meet at the middle of those 2 extremes and win 75% of matches.

In short, every 2% increase in skill yields a 1% increase in win rate from the 50% base.

So to get it from a 50% win rate to an 80% win rate, the game between these 2 specific players must be 60% skill and 40% luck (because that would increase the win rate by 30%).